Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:31:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DA 0xda54…6ace sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$540 (-32%) realized −$540 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%11W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$309
other 41% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -16.8% -24.7% 43% 43% -11.9%
≤30d 7 -16.8% -24.7% 43% 43% -11.9%
≤90d 7 -16.8% -24.7% 43% 43% -11.9%
all 32 -17.6% -25.4% 34% 34% -37.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 34% -37.2%
10% -32.6% 34% -43.3%
15% -39.1% 34% -48.7%
20% -45.1% 34% -53.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$49 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$540
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage111d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $39 +$33 +86%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $107 −$106 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$42 +83%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $91 +$104 +114%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Bucks vs. Heat Mar 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 13 $75 −$29 -38%
Celtics vs. Spurs Mar 11 $94 −$94 -100%
Grizzlies vs. 76ers Mar 11 $250 −$156 -62%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 10 $120 −$120 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) Mar 10 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Mar 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Hornets vs. Suns Mar 09 $30 +$35 +117%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Mar 09 $40 +$37 +93%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-08? Mar 08 $50 +$26 +52%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $27 +$48 +178%
Clippers vs. Grizzlies Mar 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will CA Osasuna vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? Mar 08 $10 +$21 +212%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-03-06? Mar 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 07 $20 +$49 +246%
Mavericks vs. Celtics Mar 07 $10 −$6 -64%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-07? Mar 07 $30 +$41 +138%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-03-07? Mar 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $100 +$83 +83%
UFC Fight Night: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight, Main Mar 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $39 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $27 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $27 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 18h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $91 20h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $18 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $41 22h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- BUY 50¢ $15 30h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $25 30h
Bucks vs. Heat BUY Bucks 33¢ $46 97d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 17¢ $46 97d
Celtics vs. Spurs BUY Celtics 45¢ $94 99d
Grizzlies vs. 76ers SELL 76ers 20¢ $94 99d
Grizzlies vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 53¢ $250 99d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 100d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 40¢ $50 100d
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) BUY Thunder 45¢ $50 100d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-07? BUY Yes 42¢ $50 101d
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage BUY Vici Gaming 46¢ $23 101d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? BUY Yes 45¢ $50 101d
Hornets vs. Suns BUY Suns 46¢ $30 101d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 52¢ $40 101d
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 102d
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 102d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 102d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-08? SELL Yes 97¢ $76 102d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-08? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 102d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Charles Oliveira 36¢ $27 102d
Clippers vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 27¢ $25 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records