Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:15:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda55…1534 other 38 markets active 7h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$77 (+3%) realized +$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$11
14 days+$49
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$30
sports 5% +$153
crypto 2% −$49
world 2% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -3.6% -12.8% 36% 36% -8.8%
≤30d 38 +0.5% -9.1% 39% 39% -7.4%
≤90d 38 +0.5% -9.1% 39% 39% -7.4%
all 38 +0.5% -9.1% 39% 39% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 39% -7.4%
10% -17.8% 34% -16.2%
15% -25.7% 34% -24.3%
20% -33.0% 29% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$72 vs −$45 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage7d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $22 −$22 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $34 −$21 -63%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$5 -53%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 +$10 +96%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -10%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$5 -48%
Czechia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $66 +$77 +116%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $15 +$36 +237%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $61 −$42 -68%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$25 +50%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $41 +$7 +18%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$38 +62%
France to win the second half? Jun 16 $20 +$15 +76%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$6 -62%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $56 −$25 -44%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $56 +$179 +321%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $20 +$75 +365%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $147 −$126 -86%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $59 +$89 +152%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $138 −$135 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$33 -81%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $41 −$29 -70%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -9%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $30 −$11 -36%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $822 +$469 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $236 −$233 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$14 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $210 −$209 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $35 +$38 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 33¢ $12 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $12 6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $34 7h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 38h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 47¢ $20 38h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 39h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 39h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 39h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 39h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 39h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 40h
Czechia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 82¢ $143 42h
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $66 43h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 14¢ $19 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 2d
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 3d
Argentina to win the second half? SELL Yes 50¢ $28 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records