Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:46:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xda57…da88 other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$141 (+64%) realized +$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$125
7 days+$144
14 days+$144
30 days+$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% +$169
sports 13% −$11
world 6% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 50% +51.3%
≤30d 18 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 50% +51.3%
≤90d 18 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 50% +51.3%
all 18 +0.2% -9.3% 50% 50% +51.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 50% +51.3%
10% -18.0% 44% +36.8%
15% -25.9% 44% +23.6%
20% -33.2% 39% +11.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +67% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +67% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$7 · ×3.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.42 per $1 lost it wins $3.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage41d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $87 +$153 +176%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +46%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $29 +$27 +93%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -34%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$2 +110%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +80%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 +$2 +99%
Will CA River Plate win on 2026-05-10? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +104%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $4 +$5 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $176 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $63 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $37 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $50 3h
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? BUY Yes 39¢ $18 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 3d
Argentina to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 3d
Argentina to win the second half? BUY Yes 51¢ $29 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4d
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $11 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 67¢ $4 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $6 5d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $2 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $4 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.96 · official $4.96 (match) · 36 history records