Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DA 0xda57…6eb3 sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$59 (-6%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$70
14 days−$75
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$86
sports 34% −$24
other 23% +$43
crypto 5% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -3.5% -12.7% 44% 33% -19.2%
≤30d 26 +3.2% -6.6% 54% 42% -15.4%
≤90d 27 +1.8% -7.9% 52% 41% -15.7%
all 27 +1.8% -7.9% 52% 41% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 41% -15.7%
10% -16.7% 41% -23.8%
15% -24.8% 15% -31.2%
20% -32.2% 7% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$11 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage61d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 82¢ 81¢ $80 $79 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$9 +28%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $29 +$11 +39%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $22 −$3 -16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23 −$7 -31%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $22 −$1 -3%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $23 $0 -1%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $30 +$10 +34%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $28 +$2 +6%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 −$1 -4%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $12 +$7 +56%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $30 +$10 +35%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $28 −$1 -3%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $66 −$3 -4%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $44 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $140 −$40 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $50 −$48 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $32 +$8 +25%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $50 −$15 -30%
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Ilia Simakin Jun 10 $7 +$2 +33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 10 $32 +$8 +25%
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Vilius Gaubas Jun 01 $64 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 01 $52 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 01 $15 +$5 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Jun 01 $13 +$7 +52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Jun 01 $15 +$5 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 23 $13 −$5 -36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $80 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 78¢ $30 14h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $29 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL No 48¢ $19 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 39¢ $16 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $23 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $22 2d
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL No 54¢ $21 2d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY No 55¢ $22 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Algeria 58¢ $23 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $23 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL No 99¢ $40 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 74¢ $25 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 74¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY No 74¢ $2 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $4 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL No 75¢ $30 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $28 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL No 72¢ $29 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $30 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 68¢ $27 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $28 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 61¢ $39 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $41 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 60¢ $24 3d
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $45 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 62¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $42 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.05 · official $119.06 (match) · 75 history records