Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DA
0xda58…6009
weather · 794 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$846 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$947 · open +$31
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,520
Realized+$947
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses653 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)785 / 794
History coverage77d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day34.2
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 9 History 785 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days+$237
14 days+$251
30 days+$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? No 79¢ 84¢ $359 $386 +$27 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? No 98¢ 97¢ $355 $353 −$2 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? No 97¢ 95¢ $269 $262 −$6 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? No 93¢ 93¢ $126 $126 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? No 98¢ 99¢ $109 $111 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? No 97¢ 96¢ $111 $111 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? No 88¢ 96¢ $88 $96 +$8 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? No 85¢ 89¢ $58 $61 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? No 97¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 10? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 13? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 28? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 4? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 11°C on May 12? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 6? No 92¢ 0¢ $241 $0 −$241 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 4? No 97¢ 0¢ $194 $0 −$194 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 8? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 21? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 22? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 10? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on May 9? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 10? No 58¢ 0¢ $124 $0 −$124 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 5? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 8? No 93¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 10? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $166 +$21 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $206 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $42 +$5 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $260 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $60 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $89 +$11 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $68 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $73 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $147 +$8 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $97 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $163 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $213 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $137 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 12 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $146 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $144 +$14 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 11? Jun 12 $130 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $90 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $113 +$8 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $136 +$19 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $85 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $92 +$8 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $186 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +47%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $124 −$123 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $197 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $196 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $163 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $60 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $107 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $29 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 10? Jun 11 $243 +$7 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $18 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 11 $142 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 11 $964 −$31 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $191 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 10? Jun 11 $121 +$14 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $78 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $87 −$3 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $45 −$8 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $158 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 10? Jun 10 $101 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $288 +$11 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $43 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $167 +$10 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$963
crypto 0% +$6
sports 0% +$1
other 0% +$7
tech 0% $0
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $109 48m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $65 49m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $19 50m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $107 50m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $5 57m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $46 57m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $27 59m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $355 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 85¢ $58 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $82 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $109 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 76¢ $105 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $63 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $39 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $89 8h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $109 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 89¢ $54 9h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $51 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $105 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $146 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 11? BUY No 97¢ $137 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -3.1% -12.3% 82% 14% -7.7%
≤30d 257 +0.5% -9.1% 84% 18% -8.9%
≤90d 785 -0.5% -10.0% 83% 17% -8.5%
all 785 -0.5% -10.0% 83% 17% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover34.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 17% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 9% -17.3%
15% -26.5% 5% -25.3%
20% -33.7% 3% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,519.95 · official $1,519.95 (match) · 3191 history records