Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DA 0xda59…6630 sports 1372 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$81 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate69%979W / 435L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day28.6pace
Fees−$89est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$341
7 days−$493
14 days−$792
30 days−$680
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$228
other 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 188 -33.7% -40.0% 45% 30% -18.5%
≤30d 515 -15.8% -23.8% 59% 43% -14.7%
≤90d 1414 -6.9% -15.8% 69% 46% -11.5%
all 1414 -6.9% -15.8% 69% 46% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 46% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 30% -19.9%
15% -31.2% 19% -27.7%
20% -37.9% 11% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized−$81
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses979 / 435
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$89
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1414 / 1372
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $220 $219 −$1 (-0%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Ilia Topuria 81¢ 74¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 75¢ 76¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Yes 67¢ 88¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 54¢ 56¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 33¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 395 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Suns vs. Bucks Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. 76ers Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin Badgers Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs Cloud9 - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Nuggets vs. Warriors Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Knicks Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Hornets vs. Suns Jun 15 $45 −$45 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Bucks Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Nets vs. Pistons Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Game Handicap: JDG (-2.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+2.5) Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Madison Keys vs Sonay Kartal Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Coco Gauff vs Alexandra Eala Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Lakers vs. Suns Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump say "Middle East" during the 2026 State of the Union addres Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Hawks Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Wizards vs. Pistons Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Warriors vs. Rockets Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - LCK Challengers Le Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: LYON vs LOUD (BO5) - First Stand Group B Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Pacers vs. Nets Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs RED Canids - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bucks vs. Thunder Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Clippers vs. Rockets Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Hornets vs. Trail Blazers Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Pistons vs. Raptors Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Kings vs. Clippers Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $3 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 86¢ $2 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 33¢ $1 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $2 2h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 75¢ $10 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND W BUY 26¢ $1 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 24¢ $1 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a dra BUY 12¢ $1 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 20¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 36¢ $1 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 24¢ $1 2h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $10 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $2 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $24 7h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $2 9h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 73¢ $18 9h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $4 9h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $2 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $5 10h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 83¢ $1 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $10 11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $2 11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 84¢ $2 12h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 91¢ $5 12h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY 26¢ $1 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $1 14h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W BUY 47¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.63 · official $283.63 · 3500 history records