Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:32:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xda5e…cddc other 153 markets active 2h ago coverage 362d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$199 (+5%) realized +$199 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate58%88W / 65L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$117
7 days−$2
14 days+$13
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$97
economics 21% +$6
crypto 15% +$33
sports 12% −$56
politics 4% −$16
world 2% +$11
tech 0% +$3
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +8.5% -1.8% 34% 29% -9.7%
≤30d 64 +11.2% +0.6% 33% 27% -8.5%
≤90d 67 +10.9% +0.3% 36% 25% -8.0%
all 153 +9.2% -1.2% 58% 31% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 31% -7.7%
10% -10.7% 20% -16.6%
15% -19.3% 18% -24.6%
20% -27.2% 12% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

362d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$199
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses88 / 65
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)153 / 153
History coverage362d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 153 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $103 −$102 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $11 −$9 -80%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $30 +$10 +34%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$4 -79%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4 +$6 +152%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 +$9 +650%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 +$3 +48%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 +$7 +325%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$8 +388%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $9 +$1 +11%
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $107 +$21 +20%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$9 +874%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $27 −$11 -42%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $468 +$85 +18%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 $0 -14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 +$7 +262%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$8 +442%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$7 +238%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 24h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 24h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 24h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 24h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 37h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 37h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 37h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 37h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 37h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 37h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 353 history records