Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:06:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DA 0xda60…f676 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+3%) realized −$9 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$3
other 25% −$50
crypto 12% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 50% -20.6%
≤30d 6 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 50% -20.6%
≤90d 6 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 50% -20.6%
all 6 -12.9% -21.2% 50% 50% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 50% -20.6%
10% -28.7% 50% -28.2%
15% -35.6% 50% -35.2%
20% -41.9% 50% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$50 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Under 54¢ 76¢ $50 $70 +$20 (+40%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 +$36 +70%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $51 +$37 +73%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $51 +$40 +79%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 7h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 7h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 32h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.50 · official $119.50 (match) · 11 history records