Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:49:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DA 0xda60…d188 crypto 325 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$382 (-10%) realized −$391 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%142W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$1
14 days−$33
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$118
other 38% −$290
crypto 22% −$56
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -14.8% -22.9% 33% 33% -11.2%
≤30d 25 -24.9% -32.0% 40% 28% -12.3%
≤90d 324 -10.7% -19.2% 44% 37% -22.2%
all 324 -10.7% -19.2% 44% 37% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 37% -22.2%
10% -26.9% 28% -29.6%
15% -34.0% 23% -36.4%
20% -40.5% 17% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$391
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses142 / 182
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)324 / 325
History coverage65d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 324 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 80¢ $26 $35 +$9 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $16 +$10 +62%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +41%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $25 +$5 +21%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $75 −$41 -55%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $32 +$1 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $162 +$55 +34%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $20 −$14 -70%
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $20 +$6 +30%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $20 −$4 -20%
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $20 −$11 -56%
Will Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands end in a draw? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $41 +$22 +54%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $50 −$11 -22%
Will Wales vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 02 $181 +$7 +4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $12 +$18 +150%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 −$1 -6%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 02 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $146 +$2 +1%
Will Romania win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $15 +$25 +165%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 17 $13 −$5 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 17 $3 $0 -14%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will CD Limache win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 17 $106 −$65 -61%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $51 −$48 -94%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $39 −$27 -69%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $30 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $76 +$6 +7%
Will O'Higgins FC vs. CD Universidad de Concepción end in a draw? May 16 $41 −$12 -28%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 16 $1 $0 +22%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $104 +$35 +34%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $3 +$1 +38%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 10 $63 +$10 +16%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants May 10 $55 +$9 +16%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $56 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $26 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $16 5h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $11 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 8d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 8d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 8d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 93¢ $31 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 9d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 39¢ $42 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 61¢ $42 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $33 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 98¢ $33 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 94¢ $32 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 87¢ $216 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $162 16d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 16d
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? SELL No 96¢ $26 16d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? SELL Yes 64¢ $16 16d
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 16d
Will Albania win on 2026-06-03? BUY No 73¢ $20 16d
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 16d
Will Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 16d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 79¢ $20 16d
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 16d
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 16d
Will Israel win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.84 · official $35.28 (match) · 833 history records