Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:25:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xda63…4378 other 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$634 (-7%) realized +$239 · open −$873
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%27W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$2,278now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days−$649
14 days−$709
30 days+$260
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$1,193
world 35% −$1,046
sports 17% +$1,474
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +22.7% +11.0% 57% 57% -46.9%
≤30d 41 +11.0% +0.5% 51% 49% -5.2%
≤90d 52 +11.9% +1.3% 52% 50% -8.0%
all 52 +11.9% +1.3% 52% 50% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 50% -8.0%
10% -8.4% 50% -16.8%
15% -17.3% 48% -24.9%
20% -25.4% 44% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$105 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$2,278
Realized+$239
Unrealized−$873
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses27 / 25
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions9
Markets (closed)52 / 61
History coverage47d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $688 +$188 (+38%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $672 $515 −$157 (-23%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $485 $451 −$35 (-7%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $720 $450 −$270 (-38%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $637 $114 −$522 (-82%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $22 −$2 (-8%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $94 $16 −$78 (-83%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +70%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$24 +121%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $618 −$133 -22%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 +$14 +245%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 −$4 -44%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$10 +101%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$27 +54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 +$10 +96%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$14 +139%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $12 +$9 +70%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $9 +$14 +156%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $17 +$23 +137%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $300 −$245 -82%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 +$4 +29%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $315 −$315 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $60 −$53 -89%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $22 +$37 +166%
Norway vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 01 $20 +$37 +180%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $500 +$377 +75%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,261 +$1,336 +106%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $82 −$80 -98%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 29 $510 −$430 -84%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $550 −$550 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $500 +$563 +113%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 24 $30 −$30 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 22 $6 +$5 +97%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $300 −$295 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $174 +$87 +50%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $179 −$52 -29%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 04 $400 −$240 -60%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 May 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score May 04 $6 +$5 +82%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 +$21 +203%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 20m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 21m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $45 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $500 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $485 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $20 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 5h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 55¢ $10 7h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $20 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 SELL Under 92¢ $19 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $6 10h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 30¢ $6 10h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $10 12h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $10 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 23h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $74 23h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 25h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $78 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 88¢ $20 28h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 44¢ $10 29h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $24 29h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 30h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $12 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $23 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,278.30 · official $2,279.05 (match) · 158 history records