Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:08:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DA 0xda63…a0b1 finance 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care finance specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-2%) realized −$30 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$743now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% −$27
finance 8% −$5
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.5% -39.8% 33% 0% -16.8%
≤30d 3 -33.5% -39.8% 33% 0% -16.8%
≤90d 3 -33.5% -39.8% 33% 0% -16.8%
all 3 -33.5% -39.8% 33% 0% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.8% 0% -16.8%
10% -45.6% 0% -24.7%
15% -50.8% 0% -32.0%
20% -55.6% 0% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$16 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$743
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage7d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 94¢ 94¢ $649 $652 +$3 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 21 $1 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 21 $350 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $52 −$31 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $742.77 · official $742.77 (match) · 17 history records