Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xda64…2bcf crypto 568 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$144 (+0%) realized +$143 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%552W / 15L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$411now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$20
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$22
weather 8% +$96
politics 0% −$5
other 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 43 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 231 +0.3% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.3%
all 567 +0.1% -9.5% 97% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 1% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$31 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$411
Realized+$143
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses552 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)567 / 568
History coverage252d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 567 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $410 $411 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $409 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $409 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $408 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $408 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $408 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $407 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $215 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $92 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $97 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $210 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $405 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $404 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $404 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $404 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $403 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $402 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $394 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $1,090 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $1,098 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $1,090 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,095 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $1,089 +$6 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $1,078 +$12 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,076 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $899 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,074 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $300 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $573 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 28? May 29 $473 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 27? May 28 $289 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 27 $783 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 26? May 27 $344 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 26? May 27 $400 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $71,000 on May 25? May 26 $326 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 24? May 25 $1,069 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24? May 24 $1,068 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 22? May 24 $1,067 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $1,066 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 19? May 20 $136 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 20? May 20 $928 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 19? May 19 $800 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 18? May 19 $1,060 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $1,061 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 17? May 18 $1,060 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 17? May 17 $1,059 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 16? May 16 $1,058 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? May 16 $258 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 15? May 16 $800 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 on May 14? May 15 $257 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $410 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $409 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $409 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $408 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $408 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $408 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $407 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $215 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $210 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $97 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $92 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $405 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $404 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $404 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $404 9d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $403 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $402 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $394 11d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1,090 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $1,098 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $1,090 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $1,095 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $1,089 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $1,078 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $1,076 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $899 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,074 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $573 19d
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $473 20d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $200 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $410.86 · official $410.86 (match) · 1250 history records