Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:14:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DA 0xda64…b94c crypto 771 markets active 15h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4,758 (-25%) realized −$4,733 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate41%316W / 451L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day57.7pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$575
finance 8% +$296
other 8% −$154
sports 6% −$135
world 5% −$56
politics 3% −$211
economics 3% +$396
tech 2% −$288
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -47.3% -52.3% 19% 15% -61.4%
≤30d 143 -35.3% -41.5% 26% 21% -37.9%
≤90d 767 -14.5% -22.6% 41% 32% -12.9%
all 767 -14.5% -22.6% 41% 32% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.6% 32% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -30.0% 23% -21.2%
15% -36.8% 17% -28.8%
20% -43.0% 13% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized−$4,733
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses316 / 451
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions4
Markets (closed)767 / 771
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day57.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 767 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
AI bubble burst in 2026? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $58 $52 −$6 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $34 $37 +$3 (+8%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 40¢ 14¢ $36 $13 −$23 (-64%)
Trump meets with Putin by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $38 −$6 -15%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 15 $15 −$6 -39%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -76%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $46 −$9 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$36 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$4 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $7 −$6 -94%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $5 $0 -8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 10 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 10 $1 $0 +32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 10 $1 $0 -31%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 10 $2 −$1 -34%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 10 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $21 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 14h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 14h
AI bubble burst in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 27h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $16 38h
Trump meets with Putin by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Trump meets with Putin by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Trump meets with Putin by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Trump meets with Putin by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Trump meets with Putin by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Trump meets with Putin by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Trump meets with Putin by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $10 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $46 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $24 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 3d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $34 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $30 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.83 · official $108.83 (match) · 3500 history records