Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda65…c370 crypto 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-2%) realized −$58 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate75%33W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day57.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +3.7% -6.2% 75% 32% -9.9%
≤30d 44 +3.7% -6.2% 75% 32% -9.9%
≤90d 44 +3.7% -6.2% 75% 32% -9.9%
all 44 +3.7% -6.2% 75% 32% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 32% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 25% -18.5%
15% -23.4% 11% -26.4%
20% -30.9% 9% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$26 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses33 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day57.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 18¢ 50¢ $12 $33 +$21 (+181%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $47 +$16 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $47 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $37 +$13 +35%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $57 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $65 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $34 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $29 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $57 −$57 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$21 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $56 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$31 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $56 +$3 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $54 +$5 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $41 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $61 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $39 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $48 +$11 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $3 +$14 +488%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $45 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $53 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $57 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $63 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $37 +$17 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$48 +233%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $57 +$18 +32%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $64 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $48 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $12 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $62 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $60 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $47 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $47 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $23 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $34 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $60 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $29 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $28 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $57 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $30 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $24 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $16 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.33 · official $33.33 (match) · 108 history records