Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda66…3f38 politics 228 markets active 21h ago coverage 65d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable politics specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$35,139 (-6%) realized −$57,901 · open +$22,762
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate72%117W / 46L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,400per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$148est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$169,801now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 65d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$49,055
world 45% +$36,333
sports 5% −$1,245
other 4% +$3,015
economics 0% +$22
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +17.3% +6.2% 85% 77% -3.8%
≤30d 95 -10.4% -18.9% 66% 49% -21.9%
≤90d 163 -5.6% -14.5% 72% 51% -18.2%
all 163 -5.6% -14.5% 72% 51% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 51% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 20% -26.0%
15% -30.2% 10% -33.2%
20% -37.0% 5% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$1,018) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$323 vs −$1,554 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$169,801
Realized−$57,901
Unrealized+$22,762
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses117 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$148
Open positions62
Markets (closed)163 / 228
History coverage65d
Avg bet$2,400
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 62 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 76¢ 96¢ $60,906 $76,674 +$15,768 (+26%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 90¢ 98¢ $58,937 $64,602 +$5,664 (+10%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 75¢ 78¢ $9,922 $10,395 +$473 (+5%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 80¢ 99¢ $3,180 $3,918 +$738 (+23%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $2,821 $2,991 +$169 (+6%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $2,169 $2,380 +$212 (+10%)
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Yes 85¢ 98¢ $1,295 $1,477 +$182 (+14%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 85¢ 59¢ $1,600 $1,116 −$484 (-30%)
Will Jamie Davis Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 81¢ 97¢ $767 $919 +$152 (+20%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 88¢ 93¢ $728 $774 +$46 (+6%)
Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? Yes 91¢ 97¢ $639 $682 +$43 (+7%)
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Yes 83¢ 94¢ $531 $601 +$70 (+13%)
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $376 $387 +$11 (+3%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 64¢ 95¢ $248 $370 +$122 (+49%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 47¢ 65¢ $200 $275 +$75 (+38%)
Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 87¢ 78¢ $274 $244 −$30 (-11%)
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? Yes 60¢ 76¢ $150 $190 +$40 (+27%)
Will Everett Wess be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 89¢ 89¢ $166 $166 +$0 (+0%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 52¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Mark Smith be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? Yes 68¢ 55¢ $136 $110 −$26 (-19%)
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Santa Clara County? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $100 $94 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $1,328 +$212 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $4,154 +$1,209 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $187 +$114 +61%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $102 −$89 -87%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $64 +$36 +56%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $506 +$55 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $19,201 −$293 -2%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 11 $2,903 +$76 +3%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $1,439 +$549 +38%
Will Scott Wiener receive the most votes in the CA-11 primary? Jun 10 $101 +$17 +17%
Will Motherwell FC vs. Celtic FC end in a draw? Jun 08 $238 −$238 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 08 $153 −$153 -100%
Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02? Jun 08 $307 −$307 -100%
Will VOX (VOX) win the Andalusia regional election? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum Jun 08 $1,032 −$1,032 -100%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? Jun 08 $2,547 −$2,547 -100%
Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virg Jun 08 $4,555 −$4,555 -100%
Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election? Jun 08 $2,621 −$2,621 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 08 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Celtic FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC end in a draw? Jun 08 $103 −$36 -35%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Partido Socialista Obrero Español de Andalucía (PSOE-A) win the A Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? Jun 08 $231 −$231 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 07 $510 −$314 -61%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 05 $1,018 −$350 -34%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election? Jun 04 $110 +$8 +7%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $1,264 +$275 +22%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 03 $2,533 −$950 -38%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $7,677 −$7,473 -97%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $3,007 −$2,897 -96%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $202 +$1 +0%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $51 −$34 -66%
Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election? Jun 03 $1,715 +$528 +31%
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary ele Jun 03 $422 +$69 +16%
Will Alani Bankhead be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Montana? Jun 03 $89 +$11 +13%
Will Josh Turek be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa? Jun 03 $234 +$66 +28%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 03 $704 −$171 -24%
Will Deb Haaland win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary e Jun 03 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Lindsay James be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02? Jun 03 $284 +$31 +11%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 03 $254 −$234 -92%
T20 Ireland Tri-Series, Women: Ireland vs West Indies Jun 01 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Caro Jun 01 $7,501 +$660 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $3,022 +$835 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $52,793 +$9,448 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $906 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $10,000 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $10,000 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $30,000 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $10,000 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $15,879 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $1,340 22h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,839 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $3,000 31h
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz SELL Yes 6¢ $13 32h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,011 34h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $443 34h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $4 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $6,018 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $767 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1,706 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $188 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $3,223 45h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $450 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $747 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $1,417 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $211 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $943 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $775 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $1,014 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $2,028 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 78¢ $780 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $573 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 62¢ $180 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169,800.57 · official $169,809.96 (match) · 1086 history records