Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:42:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xda68…d77f other 75 markets active 18h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$510 (+4%) realized +$490 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate73%48W / 18L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,670now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$291
7 days−$465
14 days−$330
30 days−$326
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$210
other 27% −$173
sports 16% +$418
tech 7% −$45
economics 2% −$109
world 1% −$77
culture 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -13.2% -21.5% 62% 54% -26.9%
≤30d 19 -9.3% -18.0% 68% 53% -16.6%
≤90d 45 +11.4% +0.8% 76% 51% -6.2%
all 66 -0.1% -9.7% 73% 41% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 41% -7.6%
10% -18.3% 30% -16.4%
15% -26.2% 17% -24.5%
20% -33.4% 12% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$58 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$1,670
Realized+$490
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses48 / 18
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions9
Markets (closed)66 / 75
History coverage169d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $733 $783 +$49 (+7%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $586 $626 +$40 (+7%)
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 64¢ $113 $98 −$15 (-13%)
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 68¢ $101 $86 −$14 (-14%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Yes 10¢ $25 $55 +$30 (+122%)
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 10¢ $48 $14 −$33 (-70%)
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? No 95¢ 97¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 24¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-88%)
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 22¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $155 −$154 -100%
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $119 +$36 +31%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $175 −$173 -99%
Will Cody Gakpo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $102 +$32 +31%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $136 +$44 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $28 +$20 +73%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $119 +$27 +23%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $136 +$21 +16%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $100 +$26 +26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $224 −$222 -99%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $454 +$5 +1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 17 $582 −$27 -5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $77 +$8 +10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $148 +$64 +44%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $238 +$29 +12%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $132 +$35 +26%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 03 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $1,139 +$24 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 05 $180 +$23 +13%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? May 05 $235 +$7 +3%
US bank failure by April 30? May 05 $252 +$40 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 05 $959 +$43 +4%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 20 $77 +$15 +20%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Apr 20 $47 +$70 +149%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges Apr 07 $77 +$24 +31%
Spread: Torino FC (-2.5) Apr 06 $77 +$3 +4%
Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5) Apr 05 $77 +$1 +1%
Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5) Apr 05 $77 +$2 +3%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $77 +$32 +42%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 05 $91 +$30 +32%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03? Apr 05 $77 +$59 +76%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $77 +$69 +90%
Real Betis Balompié vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $77 +$84 +109%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 05 $77 +$122 +158%
VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $77 +$152 +197%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-01? Apr 03 $77 +$29 +38%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-05? Apr 01 $77 −$3 -4%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-05? Apr 01 $77 −$76 -98%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-04? Apr 01 $77 −$77 -100%
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $77 −$2 -3%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in March? Apr 01 $147 +$9 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in March? Apr 01 $182 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Apr 01 $333 +$15 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $240 −$55 -23%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 17 $77 +$18 +24%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Mar 06 $20 $0 +2%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Mar 06 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 06 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Mar 06 $40 +$6 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $155 17h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $175 43h
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $37 2d
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $36 2d
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $14 2d
Will Cody Gakpo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $76 3d
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $119 3d
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $26 3d
Will Cody Gakpo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 76¢ $26 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $28 4d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $119 4d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 75¢ $136 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $100 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $136 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $224 6d
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Jordan 99¢ $454 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 62¢ $101 6d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? SELL No 68¢ $555 6d
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $49 8d
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $49 8d
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $51 8d
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 8d
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? BUY No 70¢ $582 8d
World Cup: Highest Scoring Match Record Broken? BUY No 95¢ $4 8d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes $24 8d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes $0 8d
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY Yes $1 8d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 20d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $62 21d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $58 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,670.31 · official $1,670.31 (match) · 154 history records