Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:33:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda68…9caf other 251 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 238L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$35
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$48
sports 24% −$24
culture 8% −$10
politics 8% −$7
economics 6% −$6
crypto 4% +$1
world 3% −$3
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 171 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 251 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)251 / 251
History coverage147d
Avg bet$242
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 251 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 25 $758 −$2 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 25 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 25 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $677 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $308 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 24 $133 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 23 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $496 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $244 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 22 $479 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 22 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $238 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $146 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $249 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $817 −$2 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $539 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $158 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $477 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $117 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $146 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $160 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $790 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $418 −$3 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $132 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $422 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $201 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $192 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $266 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $224 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $691 −$2 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $433 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $412 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $216 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $435 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 5h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 7h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 7h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 9h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 14h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 15h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 18h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 20h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $54 24h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $54 26h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $54 27h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $54 29h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 30h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 31h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 3d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 3d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1527 history records