Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:33:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda6a…02b7 world 58 markets active 2d ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable world specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$278 (-26%) realized −$278 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate41%23W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day66.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$214
world 31% −$41
finance 6% −$14
other 4% +$5
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -6.9% -15.8% 42% 30% -33.8%
≤30d 56 -7.8% -16.6% 41% 30% -32.0%
≤90d 56 -7.8% -16.6% 41% 30% -32.0%
all 56 -7.8% -16.6% 41% 30% -32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 30% -32.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 27% -38.5%
15% -31.8% 23% -44.4%
20% -38.5% 16% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$278
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses23 / 33
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 58
History coverage5d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day66.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 16 $1 $0 -15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $13 −$3 -26%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -88%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 16 $3 +$9 +298%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 16 $13 +$3 +21%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 -17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 16 $13 −$4 -29%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 16 $12 −$6 -52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 16 $2 $0 +24%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? Jun 16 $7 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $8 −$1 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $9 +$4 +43%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +7%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 16 $13 −$1 -6%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $14 +$1 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -40%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $4 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $12 −$9 -74%
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? Jun 16 $17 −$5 -28%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$4 -76%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $17 −$1 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$2 -37%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $3 +$6 +186%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Jun 15 $48 +$12 +25%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $12 −$7 -61%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $4 $0 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $7 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $150 −$147 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $90 −$35 -38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $103 −$101 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 13 $13 −$1 -7%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $4 $0 +11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $69 +$29 +42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $44 +$17 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $14 +$18 +131%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 12 $8 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 37¢ $2 2d
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 8¢ $1 2d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $11 2d
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $1 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 34¢ $6 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL Yes 36¢ $5 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 2d
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $10 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 2¢ $0 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $21 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? SELL No 2¢ $0 2d
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 52¢ $12 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 65¢ $14 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 4¢ $1 2d
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? SELL No 32¢ $12 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $23 2d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.22 · official $0.00 (match) · 354 history records