Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:44:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda6a…5b40 sports 474 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (127 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8,569 (+1%) realized +$8,567 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate97%461W / 14L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$3,489per market
Trades / day127.0pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,398now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$317
7 days+$864
14 days+$1,379
30 days+$6,693
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$6,390
other 17% +$293
world 1% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (127 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 178 -2.5% -11.8% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 475 +16.1% +5.0% 97% 2% -9.2%
≤90d 475 +16.1% +5.0% 97% 2% -9.2%
all 475 +16.1% +5.0% 97% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover127.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.0% 2% -9.2%
10% -5.0% 1% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -14.2% 1% -25.8%
20% -22.6% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$2,916) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +34% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$44 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×13.8 per $1 lost it wins $13.8
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$1,398
Realized+$8,567
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses461 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions4
Markets (closed)475 / 474
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$3,489
Trades / day127.0
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 475 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner Power Rangers 100¢ 100¢ $911 $912 +$0 (+0%)
Game Handicap: T1.A (-2.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+2.5) Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ 100¢ $367 $367 +$0 (+0%)
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+1.5) Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 95¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Mi Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group S Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Grou Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $3,742 +$4 +0%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $5,038 +$5 +0%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $18,719 +$18 +0%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $78 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1,441 +$1 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $17,178 +$17 +0%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $220 +$2 +1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $1,005 +$1 +0%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $1,119 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $3,728 +$24 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $6,656 +$7 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $22,200 +$22 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $473 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $345 $0 +0%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1,606 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $4,709 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $924 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $7,655 +$8 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $4,187 +$4 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $11,100 +$11 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 0 Norway? Jun 17 $232 $0 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,352 +$3 +0%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5,107 +$5 +0%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $30,616 +$31 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $64 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $587 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $6,009 +$6 +0%
Game Handicap: 4iki (-1.5) vs Spirit Academy (+1.5) Jun 16 $802 +$1 +0%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $12,783 +$13 +0%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) Jun 16 $199 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $347 +$5 +2%
Game Handicap: Game Master (-1.5) vs Grey Trac (+1.5) Jun 16 $1,487 +$1 +0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $64 $0 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,089 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $417 $0 +0%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $12,463 +$12 +0%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5,459 +$55 +1%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1,702 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $649 +$1 +0%
IR Iran to score first vs. New Zealand? Jun 16 $144 $0 +0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $15,257 +$15 +0%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $3,423 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $2,235 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $2,407 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 100¢ $911 13m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 95¢ $19 50m
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $903 1h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+1.5) BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 100¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $22 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 100¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 100¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $95 1h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $204 2h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 100¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 100¢ $56 2h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-2.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+2.5) BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $267 2h
Game Handicap: T1.A (-2.5) vs Nongshim Esports Academy (+2.5) BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $100 2h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $545 2h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $203 2h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 100¢ $28 2h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 100¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 100¢ $68 2h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 100¢ $205 2h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Rooster 100¢ $3,330 3h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $58 3h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $307 3h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $1,383 3h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $465 3h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $42 3h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $699 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,398.46 · official $1,398.46 (match) · 3500 history records