Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:24:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda6d…ea5c crypto 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$524 (-64%) realized −$524 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -77% what you keep after slip
Net edge-77%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate17%6W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 46d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$284
world 49% −$397
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-77.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 35 -74.7% -77.1% 17% 11% -92.3%
all 35 -74.7% -77.1% 17% 11% -92.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -77.1% 11% -92.3%
10% -79.3% 9% -93.1%
15% -81.3% 3% -93.7%
20% -83.1% 3% -94.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -92% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -75% · $-wt -92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late -88% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$24 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$524
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses6 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage46d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $397 −$397 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 04 $34 −$27 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 04 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 04 $6 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $2 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 03 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 03 $33 −$7 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 03 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 03 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 03 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 03 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 03 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 03 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 03 $26 −$14 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 03 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 03 $15 −$10 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 03 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 03 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 03 $9 −$8 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 03 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 03 $1 $0 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $136 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $137 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $68 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $25 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $6 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $6 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $6 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $58 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $4 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $6 44d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? SELL No 0¢ $0 45d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY No 3¢ $2 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $2 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 137 history records