Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:06:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DA 0xda6f…6eb6 crypto 214 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (117 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$521 (+13%) realized +$553 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate64%134W / 77L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day116.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$674
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (117 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 211 +8.2% -2.1% 64% 61% +7.7%
≤30d 211 +8.2% -2.1% 64% 61% +7.7%
≤90d 211 +8.2% -2.1% 64% 61% +7.7%
all 211 +8.2% -2.1% 64% 61% +7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover116.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.1% 61% +7.7%
10% ← realistic here -11.5% 48% -2.6%
15% -20.0% 38% -12.0%
20% -27.9% 33% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized+$553
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses134 / 77
Open positions3
Markets (closed)211 / 214
History coverage4d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day116.7
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Up 72¢ 50¢ $75 $53 −$22 (-30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Up 76¢ 50¢ $25 $17 −$9 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 22 $72 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $33 +$18 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $27 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $91 +$26 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $66 +$53 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $22 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 21 $14 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 21 $88 +$31 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $78 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $77 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $17 +$13 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $17 +$14 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $17 +$14 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$19 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$27 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $80 +$79 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $35 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$22 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 21 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $23 +$11 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $19 +$21 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 21 $28 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $44 −$43 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $14 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $36 +$11 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $39 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$11 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$30 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $61 +$38 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 21 $42 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $32 +$65 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$61 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$37 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$30 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$31 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $37 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $14 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $14 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $28 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $28 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $33 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $38 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $38 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.30 · official $148.30 (match) · 569 history records