Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:36:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DA 0xda6f…2874 sports 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 608d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11,744 (-22%) realized −$11,746 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%30W / 34L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$837per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1,121est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$702now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14,051
7 days−$13,749
14 days−$13,319
30 days−$12,674
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$12,764
other 4% +$549
politics 0% −$19
world 0% −$6
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -39.8% -45.6% 31% 29% -34.5%
≤30d 51 -24.8% -32.0% 41% 39% -31.2%
≤90d 59 -13.9% -22.1% 47% 46% -30.1%
all 64 -15.1% -23.2% 47% 44% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 44% -30.1%
10% -30.6% 39% -36.8%
15% -37.3% 31% -42.9%
20% -43.4% 20% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$710) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +34% → late -64% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$225 vs −$559 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

608d coverage
Net worth$702
Realized−$11,746
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses30 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$1,121
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage608d
Avg bet$837
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $700 $702 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $185 −$185 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $506 −$506 -100%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $493 +$214 +43%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $910 +$306 +34%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 17 $135 +$150 +111%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,007 −$23 -2%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $506 +$5 +1%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $301 +$136 +45%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $11 +$9 +82%
Will Trump say "Crimea" during conference with Putin on August 15? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awa Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Death Stranding 2: On The Beach win Game of the Year at the 2025 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during conference with Putin on A Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kingdom Come: Deliverance II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Gam Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donkey Kong Bananza win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $8,007 −$3,579 -45%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $710 −$710 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $1,617 −$1,617 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,987 −$1,987 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $9,195 −$1,331 -14%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 17 $4,433 −$4,433 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $400 +$242 +60%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $304 +$296 +97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $577 +$276 +48%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 16 $1,010 −$33 -3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $508 +$494 +97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $282 +$67 +24%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,009 +$737 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $7,710 −$2,682 -35%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $4,995 +$2,294 +46%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,685 −$606 -36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $617 +$197 +32%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $99 +$19 +19%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $17 −$10 -57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $996 +$223 +22%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $716 +$341 +48%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $498 +$220 +44%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $99 +$61 +62%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner May 24 $14 +$18 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $707 21m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $1,217 22m
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) SELL San Francisco Giants 100¢ $285 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $493 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $910 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $35 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Under 61¢ $984 3h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 48¢ $512 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 70¢ $437 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $1,007 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $506 8h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner SELL TDK 100¢ $20 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 47¢ $301 8h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 31¢ $185 9h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY TDK 54¢ $11 9h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 46¢ $506 12h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 47¢ $135 12h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 32¢ $642 15h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 19¢ $400 16h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 50¢ $304 28h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $718 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 45¢ $978 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $1,010 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $577 34h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,001 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $1,012 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 41¢ $348 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $1,746 2d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $508 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 32¢ $282 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $702.22 · official $702.22 (match) · 147 history records