Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:12:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DA 0xda75…0799 other 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,572 (-2%) realized −$1,572 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate17%21W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$720per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$876now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$17
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$5
politics 37% −$41
sports 14% −$1,496
world 4% +$15
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$50
culture 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 61 -1.7% -11.1% 5% 0% -11.4%
all 122 -5.5% -14.5% 17% 10% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 10% -11.2%
10% -22.7% 9% -19.7%
15% -30.2% 8% -27.5%
20% -37.0% 8% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,061) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$876
Realized−$1,572
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses21 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)122 / 124
History coverage157d
Avg bet$720
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $642 $642 +$0 (+0%)
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $235 $234 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,077 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $988 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,528 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,498 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,833 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,049 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,013 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,069 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 02 $960 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $269 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? Jun 02 $496 $0 +0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $998 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $544 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $538 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $474 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,831 −$3 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,065 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,569 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $1,061 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $1,186 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $1,192 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,071 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in April? Apr 21 $379 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 21 $347 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $2,153 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,087 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $2,063 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,566 −$2 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,121 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,138 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,026 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,185 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,880 −$2 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $1,095 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $1,862 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $235 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $259 2h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $259 2h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $362 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $363 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $642 2d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $743 5d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $744 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,075 6d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,077 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $987 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $988 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $826 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $827 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $752 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $753 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $971 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $972 8d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,047 12d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,049 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,011 13d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,013 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $807 16d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $808 16d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $700 16d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $701 16d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,036 17d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,038 17d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $958 17d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $960 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $876.50 · official $876.50 (match) · 359 history records