Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:47:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda77…683f sports 317 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (3167 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$13,559 (-33%) realized −$12,836 · open −$723
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate59%148W / 101L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day3167.0pace
Fees−$411est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$5,904now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$2,884
other 15% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3167 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 249 +49.0% +34.8% 59% 45% -1.3%
≤30d 249 +49.0% +34.8% 59% 45% -1.3%
≤90d 249 +49.0% +34.8% 59% 45% -1.3%
all 249 +49.0% +34.8% 59% 45% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3167.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +34.8% 45% -1.3%
10% ← realistic here +21.9% 33% -10.8%
15% +10.1% 24% -19.4%
20% -0.7% 19% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +54% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$60 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5,904
Realized−$12,836
Unrealized−$723
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses148 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$411
Open positions155
Markets (closed)249 / 317
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$130
Trades / day3167.0
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 155 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 69¢ 66¢ $384 $365 −$19 (-5%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Under 63¢ 100¢ $218 $346 +$128 (+59%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins Colorado Rockies 49¢ 85¢ $181 $316 +$134 (+74%)
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 77¢ 84¢ $247 $267 +$20 (+8%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland West Indies 79¢ 80¢ $218 $220 +$3 (+1%)
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) Colorado Rockies 26¢ 98¢ $56 $215 +$159 (+283%)
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals Miami Marlins 65¢ 84¢ $166 $213 +$47 (+28%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Milwaukee Brewers 76¢ 100¢ $141 $184 +$44 (+31%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 95¢ 100¢ $168 $176 +$8 (+5%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Los Angeles Dodgers 40¢ 20¢ $327 $169 −$158 (-48%)
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 56¢ 50¢ $181 $163 −$18 (-10%)
Counter-Strike: DFX Peek vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C MIBR Academy 75¢ 100¢ $91 $122 +$31 (+34%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 21.5 Over 83¢ 100¢ $86 $103 +$17 (+20%)
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs NEW VISION 74¢ 81¢ $92 $100 +$9 (+9%)
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Priska Madelyn Nugroho Priska Madelyn Nugroho 50¢ 70¢ $66 $93 +$27 (+40%)
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage Division One 58¢ 100¢ $52 $90 +$38 (+72%)
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ 42¢ $114 $90 −$24 (-21%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ 50¢ $91 $89 −$2 (-2%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Over 72¢ 81¢ $78 $88 +$10 (+13%)
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 32¢ 16¢ $168 $88 −$80 (-48%)
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 43¢ 48¢ $78 $88 +$10 (+13%)
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Under 58¢ 72¢ $71 $87 +$16 (+23%)
Spread: Uzbekistan (-2.5) DR Congo 94¢ 98¢ $82 $86 +$4 (+5%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) San Diego Padres 82¢ 94¢ $72 $83 +$11 (+15%)
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Under 50¢ 61¢ $66 $81 +$14 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Sa Jun 27 $24 +$69 +293%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 27 $189 −$24 -13%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 27 $101 +$17 +17%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $51 +$1 +3%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 27 $862 +$42 +5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $287 +$97 +34%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 27 $34 +$32 +92%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Neither team to score first? Jun 27 $108 +$32 +30%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $306 +$24 +8%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $14 +$2 +12%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 27 $96 +$33 +35%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $106 +$67 +63%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $499 +$152 +30%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 27 $1 $0 +22%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $414 +$34 +8%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $183 +$25 +14%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 27 $27 +$9 +33%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $319 +$29 +9%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $110 +$26 +23%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $12 +$4 +35%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Neither team to score first? Jun 27 $116 +$12 +10%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 27 $119 +$9 +8%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 27 $233 +$77 +33%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 27 $35 +$5 +13%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 2 Spain? Jun 27 $7 +$1 +16%
Uruguay to score first vs. Spain? Jun 27 $35 +$10 +30%
Spain to win the second half? Jun 27 $211 +$43 +20%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5 Jun 27 $26 +$2 +8%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 27 $175 +$17 +10%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $157 +$67 +42%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $14 +$2 +18%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 161.5 Jun 27 $4 +$1 +37%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 +$12 +49%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 27 $68 +$12 +17%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $399 +$17 +4%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $29 +$29 +99%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $15 +$1 +5%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $342 +$23 +7%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $148 +$81 +55%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $135 +$254 +187%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-2.5) Jun 27 $488 +$24 +5%
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $2 +$2 +125%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $42 +$30 +72%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $8 $0 +4%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $244 +$12 +5%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $83 +$9 +10%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $151 +$43 +28%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $27 +$37 +137%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $41 +$41 +98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 22¢ $1 0m
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 27¢ $1 0m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 8¢ $0 0m
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Colorado Rockies 77¢ $4 0m
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 16¢ $1 0m
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Colorado Rockies 80¢ $4 0m
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 14¢ $0 0m
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 17¢ $1 0m
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Athletics 82¢ $5 1m
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 68¢ $21 1m
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 68¢ $22 1m
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Athletics 48¢ $4 1m
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 52¢ $1 1m
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 52¢ $45 1m
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 1m
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $49 1m
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 48¢ $42 1m
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 1m
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 56¢ $2 1m
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 51¢ $1 1m
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 61¢ $2 1m
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 37¢ $2 1m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 75¢ $4 1m
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 48¢ $1 1m
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Miami Marlins 74¢ $14 1m
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 64¢ $14 1m
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Miami Marlins 76¢ $12 1m
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Colorado Rockies 81¢ $9 1m
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Colorado Rockies 81¢ $71 1m
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Miami Marlins 74¢ $6 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,903.78 · official $5,974.86 · 3500 history records