Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:39:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

DA 0xda77…79fe crypto 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip

Net edge-36%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate59%10W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$14per market

Trades / day48.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-24.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-16.6%	-24.5%	59%	35%	-14.8%
≤30d	17	-16.6%	-24.5%	59%	35%	-14.8%
≤90d	17	-16.6%	-24.5%	59%	35%	-14.8%
all	17	-16.6%	-24.5%	59%	35%	-14.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover48.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-24.5%	35%	-14.8%
10% ← realistic here	-31.7%	29%	-23.0%
15%	-38.3%	12%	-30.4%
20%	-44.4%	6%	-37.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 62% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

40% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -4% → late -28% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.75 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$21

Realized−$5

Unrealized+$4

Win rate (resolved)59%

Wins / losses10 / 7

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)17 / 19

History coverage1d

Avg bet$14

Trades / day48.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Yes	31¢	48¢	$13	$20	+$7 (+53%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros	Houston Astros	35¢	10¢	$5	$1	−$3 (-70%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$33	−$7	-22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Jun 16	$30	+$3	+10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Jun 16	$17	−$8	-48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Jun 16	$6	$0	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Jun 16	$31	+$13	+44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Jun 16	$21	−$10	-48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Jun 16	$8	−$8	-96%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$10	+$11	+111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Jun 16	$15	+$3	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Jun 16	$21	+$1	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Jun 16	$16	+$3	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Jun 16	$10	−$5	-46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Jun 16	$6	+$2	+32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Jun 16	$5	+$2	+31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Jun 16	$5	$0	+2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	33¢	$25	2m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	41¢	$33	34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	SELL Down	64¢	$33	43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Down	55¢	$30	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$8	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	SELL Up	58¢	$8	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$8	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	SELL Down	98¢	$6	54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	BUY Down	91¢	$6	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	SELL Down	54¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	BUY Down	40¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	SELL Up	56¢	$36	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$24	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	SELL Up	66¢	$14	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$8	1h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	31¢	$13	1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	44¢	$22	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	SELL Up	67¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	SELL Up	67¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	SELL Down	69¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	SELL Down	64¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	SELL Up	65¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	SELL Down	50¢	$7	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.91 · official $17.62 · 51 history records