Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DA 0xda7c…a05e crypto 1721 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$113 (+3%) realized +$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate76%1502W / 474L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day62.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$656
7 days−$657
14 days−$660
30 days−$662
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$24
other 0% $0
sports 0% +$1
politics 0% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 759 -34.1% -40.4% 58% 24% -28.5%
≤30d 1860 -14.2% -22.4% 75% 41% -18.3%
≤90d 1976 -13.5% -21.7% 76% 42% -18.0%
all 1976 -13.5% -21.7% 76% 42% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 42% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 4% -25.8%
15% -36.0% 0% -33.0%
20% -42.3% 0% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1502 / 474
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1976 / 1721
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day62.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1976 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 456 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1357%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$4 -736%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1526%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 25, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -750%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$5 -3602%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -2197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -2919%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -869%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -760%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1334%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1773%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -829%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -825%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -700%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1034%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -644%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -460%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -882%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1153%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$2 -1400%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -675%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -934%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -3904%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1835%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -951%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$1 -826%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.24 · official $3.24 (match) · 3500 history records