Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DA 0xda7d…3df9 politics 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$95 (-1%) realized −$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$9
politics 37% −$8
sports 7% −$79
world 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 101 -6.0% -14.9% 5% 4% -10.0%
all 117 -8.9% -17.5% 7% 6% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 6% -10.0%
10% -25.4% 4% -18.7%
15% -32.6% 2% -26.5%
20% -39.2% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×5.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 109
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage117d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $25 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 19 $18 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 08 $153 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $25 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $112 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $243 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $152 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $120 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $149 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $159 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $467 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $127 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $118 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $127 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 18 $135 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $143 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $148 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 15 $143 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $115 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $391 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $159 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $156 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $122 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $121 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $247 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $134 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $144 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $151 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $124 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $122 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $151 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $268 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $123 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 18 $139 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $143 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $114 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $162 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $126 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $251 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $160 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $278 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $142 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 4h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 13h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 13h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 40h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $21 40h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $21 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 2d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 2d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 2d
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 7d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 9d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 11d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 11d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 11d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 11d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 12d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $22 12d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $22 13d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 14d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 22d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 24d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $122 24d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $122 24d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $152 25d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $152 25d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $146 25d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $146 26d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $131 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.99 · official $24.99 (match) · 320 history records