Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:44:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DA 0xda7e…c292 crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$111 (+6%) realized +$111 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate83%29W / 6L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day69.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +8.6% -1.8% 83% 69% -2.8%
≤30d 35 +8.6% -1.8% 83% 69% -2.8%
≤90d 35 +8.6% -1.8% 83% 69% -2.8%
all 35 +8.6% -1.8% 83% 69% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.8% 69% -2.8%
10% ← realistic here -11.2% 49% -12.1%
15% -19.7% 20% -20.6%
20% -27.6% 6% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$41 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$111
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses29 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage1d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day69.0
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$30 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $107 −$101 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $102 +$25 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $102 −$30 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $106 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $57 +$36 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $62 +$30 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$23 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $51 −$50 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $51 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $51 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $102 +$25 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $51 −$10 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $56 +$13 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $110 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $50 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $51 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $3 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $126 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $50 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $51 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $50 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $14 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $115 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $51 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $59 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $51 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records