Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda80…cad3 crypto 340 markets active 4h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36 (+1%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate75%255W / 85L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$7
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 175 -2.5% -11.8% 60% 54% -12.1%
≤30d 196 +0.1% -9.4% 63% 56% -10.2%
≤90d 196 +0.1% -9.4% 63% 56% -10.2%
all 340 -0.7% -10.2% 75% 34% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 34% -9.0%
10% -18.8% 29% -17.7%
15% -26.6% 23% -25.7%
20% -33.8% 18% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses255 / 85
Open positions0
Markets (closed)340 / 340
History coverage109d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 340 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$5 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $0 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 820 history records