Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:53:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda81…d75c other 151 markets active 5h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate8%12W / 139L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$285per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$22
politics 33% −$18
sports 11% +$20
economics 4% −$2
crypto 4% −$2
world 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 108 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 151 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 4% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 2% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×8.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses12 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage135d
Avg bet$285
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $323 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $310 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $44 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $184 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $945 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $211 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $482 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $434 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $444 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $252 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $185 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $454 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $224 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $249 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $196 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 13 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $219 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $447 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $232 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 05 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 04 $240 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $214 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $228 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $75 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $202 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $238 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $237 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $412 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $255 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $200 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $210 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $229 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $249 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $276 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $235 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $445 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 4h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 7h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 7h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 10h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 13h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 24h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 3d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 3d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 3d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 8d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $31 8d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $31 18d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 22d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 22d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 23d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 24d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $184 27d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $184 28d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $244 28d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $244 29d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $246 30d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $246 30d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $211 30d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $211 31d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $227 31d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $227 31d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $223 31d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $223 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 478 history records