Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DA 0xda84…ad33 sports 356 markets active 2h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-2%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate56%198W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 64% +$22
sports 36% −$59
other 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 16 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 57 +3.2% -6.6% 96% 9% -7.9%
all 355 -2.8% -12.1% 56% 41% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 41% -11.1%
10% -20.5% 41% -19.6%
15% -28.2% 41% -27.3%
20% -35.2% 40% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses198 / 157
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)355 / 356
History coverage227d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 355 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 155 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? Jun 25 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 22? Jun 22 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 19 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 12? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 1? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 1? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May May 28 $4 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 27? May 28 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 82°F or higher on May 28? May 27 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 19? May 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 19? May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May May 13 $53 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 12? May 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 60°F or higher on May 12? May 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 68°F or higher on May 11? May 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on May May 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on May 9? May 09 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 78°F or higher on May 5? May 05 $4 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 72°F or higher on May 4? May 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 74°F or higher on May 4? May 04 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 48°F or higher on May 4? May 04 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on May 3? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 28? May 03 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 28? Apr 28 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 19? Apr 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 19? Apr 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 17? Apr 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on Apri Apr 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on April 14? Apr 17 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 7? Apr 14 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 50°F or higher on April 8? Apr 14 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 9? Apr 14 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or below on Apri Apr 07 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 5? Apr 07 $3 +$5 +174%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on April 4? Apr 07 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 69°F or below on April 5? Apr 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Grizzlies: O/U 226.5 Apr 04 $5 $0 +2%
Celtics vs. Heat: O/U 242.5 Apr 04 $5 $0 +4%
Kings vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5 Apr 04 $5 +$3 +65%
Knicks vs. Grizzlies Apr 04 $10 $0 +2%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 04 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on April 2? Apr 04 $12 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $60 5d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $60 6d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $60 7d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $60 8d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $60 17d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 18d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $31 18d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $50 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $6 26d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $50 26d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 1? BUY No 99¢ $5 26d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May BUY Yes 96¢ $4 30d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 82°F or higher on May 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 30d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 82°F or higher on May 28? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 31d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 74°F or higher on May 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 31d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $20 38d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $17 38d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $20 38d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May SELL Yes 99¢ $54 44d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May BUY Yes 96¢ $53 44d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 68°F or higher on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 47d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 47d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 60°F or higher on May 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 47d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 60°F or higher on May 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 47d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on May BUY Yes 99¢ $10 47d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on May 9? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.88 · official $59.88 (match) · 604 history records