Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:55:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xda88…4fd7 other 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$324 (+12%) realized +$360 · open −$36
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$803now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$132
7 days+$550
14 days+$496
30 days+$680
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$360
sports 24% +$64
crypto 3% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +39.1% +25.9% 59% 59% +31.3%
≤30d 27 +42.8% +29.2% 59% 59% +29.7%
≤90d 37 +10.2% -0.3% 46% 46% +17.3%
all 37 +10.2% -0.3% 46% 46% +17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 46% +17.3%
10% -9.8% 46% +6.1%
15% -18.5% 46% -4.2%
20% -26.5% 46% -13.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$30 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$803
Realized+$360
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions6
Markets (closed)37 / 43
History coverage63d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $363 $364 +$1 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $376 $340 −$36 (-10%)
Algeria leading at halftime? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Algeria 39¢ 40¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Algeria 18¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 38¢ 26¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $260 +$172 +66%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 23 $13 +$11 +86%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $31 +$44 +146%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $81 +$64 +79%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $20 +$91 +442%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$65 +158%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 −$47 -93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $81 +$59 +73%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $71 +$64 +90%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $81 +$82 +101%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $46 +$63 +136%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $53 +$34 +65%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $21 +$31 +146%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 13 $86 −$84 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $81 −$80 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$110 +109%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $51 +$154 +302%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $35 +$30 +84%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the May 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 07 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? May 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $10 +$11 +109%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $37 −$32 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) BUY Algeria 18¢ $10 12m
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 13m
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 39¢ $41 14m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 16m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $256 16m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $139 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $135 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $71 2h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $13 14h
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY France 20¢ $15 14h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $31 14h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $81 32h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $10 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 48¢ $101 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $81 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 18¢ $20 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 47¢ $102 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany $3 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $51 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $81 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $71 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 3d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $41 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $81 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $803.45 · official $803.45 (match) · 157 history records