Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:14:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda8a…2dba sports 339 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$75 (-1%) realized +$51 · open −$126
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%162W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$134est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$647now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$61
14 days−$848
30 days−$528
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$453
other 32% +$258
crypto 0% −$9
world 0% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -4.2% -13.4% 51% 51% -12.6%
≤30d 128 -14.4% -22.6% 41% 41% -21.2%
≤90d 321 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 50% -10.2%
all 321 -3.3% -12.5% 50% 50% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 50% -10.2%
10% -20.9% 48% -18.8%
15% -28.5% 44% -26.7%
20% -35.5% 37% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$34 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$647
Realized+$51
Unrealized−$126
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses162 / 159
Est. fees paid−$134
Open positions18
Markets (closed)321 / 339
History coverage85d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 70¢ 44¢ $218 $138 −$81 (-37%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 58¢ $45 $47 +$2 (+5%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 52¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 36¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-27%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+11%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 36¢ $33 $29 −$4 (-13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 38¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+10%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 52¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+4%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 44¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Gonzalo Villanueva 55¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $28 +$23 +82%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $22 −$22 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $39 −$38 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $16 +$22 +134%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $26 +$16 +60%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $22 +$20 +90%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$17 +109%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $35 −$35 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $35 +$15 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $25 +$24 +93%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 17 $24 +$30 +124%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $16 +$10 +62%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$12 +60%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +45%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 −$21 -83%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $27 −$27 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $28 −$28 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 +$36 +140%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $25 +$44 +172%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $25 +$30 +119%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $32 +$48 +152%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $33 +$42 +129%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $36 +$30 +83%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $27 +$22 +79%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $27 +$24 +89%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $30 +$19 +62%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $33 −$33 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$34 +134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$17 +109%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $38 +$6 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $57 +$38 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Gonzalo Villanueva 55¢ $41 1h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) SELL 9z 100¢ $52 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $22 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $15 15h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $20 15h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $25 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 15h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $39 15h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 54¢ $28 16h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $22 25h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 25h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL No 100¢ $32 26h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $22 30h
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $14 31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $35 36h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $16 36h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $26 36h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $15 36h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $15 37h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 37h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $15 37h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $25 38h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 38h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $12 2d
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $16 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $14 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $647.33 · official $647.33 (match) · 705 history records