Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DA 0xda8c…67a4 crypto 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$25 (-2%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate54%45W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$18
other 1% +$2
world 1% −$7
weather 0% −$2
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -18.0% -25.8% 53% 37% -10.7%
≤30d 51 -18.0% -25.8% 53% 37% -10.7%
≤90d 68 -10.3% -18.8% 57% 44% -10.7%
all 84 -4.0% -13.2% 54% 42% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 42% -11.6%
10% -21.5% 32% -20.1%
15% -29.1% 25% -27.8%
20% -36.0% 21% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses45 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage149d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $88 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $92 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $94 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $87 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $80 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $68 +$12 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $61 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $64 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $68 −$5 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $63 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $57 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $19 +$4 +20%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$5 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 19? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 $0 -12%
Will Rúben Neves be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $89 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $88 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $89 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $92 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $92 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $94 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $94 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $87 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $87 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $80 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $80 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $57 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $54 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 167 history records