Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:20:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda8c…b280 sports 1634 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$86 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%1607W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$8
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$452
weather 19% +$31
other 16% +$25
crypto 2% +$3
finance 2% +$3
tech 1% +$2
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 183 +0.1% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1307 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 0% -9.8%
all 1632 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$28 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1607 / 25
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1632 / 1634
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$98
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1632 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Yaxel Lendeborg be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 23? Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
ITF Kayseri: Ayline Samardzic vs Julia Khramtsova Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 23 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Scotland finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Malaysia vs Thailand Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Jackson Blake win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Team Liquid win LCS 2026 Spring? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yaxel Lendeborg be the 5th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $73 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 5h
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $100 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova BUY Hayu Kinoshita 100¢ $100 7h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $100 8h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants BUY Lotte Giants 100¢ $100 13h
ITF Kayseri: Ayline Samardzic vs Julia Khramtsova BUY Ayline Samardzic 100¢ $100 13h
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? BUY No 100¢ $100 23h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) BUY Kansas City Royals 100¢ $100 25h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 100¢ $100 31h
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 46h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 100¢ $100 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 100¢ $100 2d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 100¢ $100 3d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will Scotland finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $100 3d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $100 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $100 4d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $100 4d
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY YFP Gaming 100¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.90 · official $199.90 (match) · 3500 history records