Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:21:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda8c…c659 sports 296 markets active 3h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$276 (-2%) realized −$147 · open −$129
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate49%146W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$60
14 days+$22
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$128
weather 15% −$190
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-40.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +2.1% -7.6% 94% 6% -7.9%
≤30d 81 -4.9% -14.0% 88% 1% -10.6%
≤90d 295 -33.8% -40.1% 49% 6% -10.9%
all 295 -33.8% -40.1% 49% 6% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.1% 6% -10.9%
10% -45.9% 4% -19.4%
15% -51.1% 3% -27.2%
20% -55.9% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$147
Unrealized−$129
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses146 / 149
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)295 / 296
History coverage64d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 295 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 56¢ 0¢ $129 $0 −$129 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 118 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne Jun 18 $205 +$2 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne Jun 18 $223 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $227 $0 +0%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $38 +$3 +7%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $148 +$21 +14%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $182 +$2 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $104 +$2 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $192 +$5 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $286 +$3 +1%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $330 +$8 +2%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $144 $0 -0%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $266 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $179 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $179 $0 +0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $179 $0 +0%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $305 +$7 +2%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $170 $0 +0%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $49 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $170 $0 +0%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $126 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $119 $0 +0%
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 W Jun 10 $51 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $170 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $170 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs ASTRAL - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $81 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $165 $0 +0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $99 −$1 -1%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $93 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $160 $0 +0%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $98 −$16 -17%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $188 +$4 +2%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $180 $0 +0%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $170 $0 +0%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $170 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $77 −$28 -37%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $199 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $95 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $337 −$169 -50%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $368 +$1 +0%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $318 +$1 +0%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 4? Jun 03 $138 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 4? Jun 03 $225 +$1 +0%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $297 −$3 -1%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $297 −$3 -1%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $360 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3? Jun 02 $353 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $359 +$1 +0%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 01 $357 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $349 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 3 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 56¢ $129 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $207 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $173 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $32 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 100¢ $225 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 99¢ $223 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 100¢ $227 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Galions 100¢ $41 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 93¢ $38 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner SELL Galions 85¢ $169 3d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 74¢ $148 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL LYON 92¢ $184 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 91¢ $178 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 91¢ $4 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 67¢ $106 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $70 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $34 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 63¢ $100 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 60¢ $96 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 61¢ $98 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 60¢ $96 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $148 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 98¢ $147 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 94¢ $65 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 94¢ $3 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 94¢ $30 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 94¢ $3 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 94¢ $2 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 94¢ $5 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 94¢ $9 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.12 (match) · 898 history records