Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:19:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
DA 0xda91…e7ea crypto 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+4%) realized +$45 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate48%40W / 43L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$47
14 days+$43
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$81
other 9% +$2
sports 5% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -17.6% -25.4% 47% 42% -6.1%
≤30d 83 -13.5% -21.7% 48% 42% -6.3%
≤90d 83 -13.5% -21.7% 48% 42% -6.3%
all 83 -13.5% -21.7% 48% 42% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 42% -6.3%
10% -29.2% 40% -15.3%
15% -36.1% 33% -23.5%
20% -42.3% 20% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses40 / 43
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage21d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 28¢ 32¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 0¢ 85¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $140 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$7 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$15 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $16 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $61 −$31 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 23 $11 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 23 $72 +$19 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$9 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $167 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$9 -84%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$6 +123%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$2 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$5 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$13 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$6 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $140 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $38 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $17 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.33 · official $4.33 (match) · 221 history records