Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:44:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DA 0xda91…9ffd world 97 markets active 5d ago coverage 58d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$8,028 (+8%) realized +$9,009 · open −$981
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +189% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +114% what you keep after slip
Net edge+114%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate63%57W / 34L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$1,082per market
Trades / day57.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$681now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$348
7 days+$1,686
14 days+$3,164
30 days+$5,223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$10,533
politics 26% −$972
other 6% +$1,493
tech 4% +$122
finance 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+161.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +309.4% +270.4% 38% 31% -3.4%
≤30d 64 +120.3% +99.3% 58% 41% -2.7%
≤90d 91 +189.1% +161.6% 63% 46% +3.3%
all 91 +189.1% +161.6% 63% 46% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +161.6% 46% +3.3%
10% +136.5% 36% -6.6%
15% ← realistic here +113.7% 29% -15.6%
20% +92.7% 24% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +189% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,052) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +231% → late +148% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
19.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$303 vs −$175 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.18 per $1 lost it wins $3.18
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$681
Realized+$9,009
Unrealized−$981
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses57 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions90
Markets (closed)91 / 97
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$1,082
Trades / day57.3
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 90 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? No 80¢ 96¢ $310 $373 +$63 (+20%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No 56¢ 71¢ $134 $172 +$38 (+28%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $43 $48 +$5 (+12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $22 $20 −$1 (-5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 95¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+24%)
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 77¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+43%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes 29¢ 2¢ $70 $6 −$64 (-91%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $987 $6 −$981 (-99%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 42¢ 23¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-45%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Nothing Ever Happens: June Something 12¢ 1¢ $31 $2 −$29 (-94%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-64%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 21¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+2638%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 21¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+2541%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1160%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1122%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+751%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+584%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$18 (-99%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+506%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+444%)
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+239%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+224%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+200%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+188%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting Jun 27 $43 −$43 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: March Jun 27 $0 +$25 +12077%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 2–6 seconds during the day of their n Jun 27 $43 −$43 -100%
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026? Jun 27 $157 −$159 -101%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last less than 2 seconds during the day of Jun 27 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 6–10 seconds during the day of their Jun 27 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Trump and Xi only be photographed together during the day of thei Jun 27 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $9,900 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 22 $210 −$53 -25%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $5,736 +$1,516 +26%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $523 +$48 +9%
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? Jun 22 $48 −$48 -99%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $5,326 +$650 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $1,683 −$332 -20%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $1,196 +$172 +14%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 20 $1,478 +$81 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $447 +$506 +113%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 19 $437 −$51 -12%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $319 +$102 +32%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $5,000 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2,024 +$4 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1,902 +$383 +20%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $32 +$18 +56%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 17 $90 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $321 +$29 +9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $603 +$223 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,714 +$227 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $2,401 −$250 -10%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $448 +$98 +22%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $519 −$223 -43%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $2,035 +$256 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 15 $344 −$2 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 15 $4,379 +$748 +17%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $474 +$111 +24%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $701 −$95 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $2,591 −$450 -17%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $1,095 −$89 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $176 −$87 -50%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $50 +$27 +54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $252 −$7 -3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO Jun 12 $1,925 +$54 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1,778 +$27 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $32 +$4 +12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $225 +$15 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $29 −$1 -3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 09 $3 −$2 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $2,998 +$1,361 +45%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $381 +$3 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1,821 −$249 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $38 4d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $572 5d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $233 5d
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $5 5d
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $0 5d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 5d
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $11 5d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $67 5d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $86 5d
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $14 5d
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $6 5d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $44 5d
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $2 5d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $18 5d
Starmer out by June 25, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $10 5d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $71 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $19 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $75 6d
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 24¢ $20 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $180 6d
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 20¢ $33 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $180 6d
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 20¢ $40 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $180 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $146 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $180 6d
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 20¢ $40 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $180 6d
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 20¢ $40 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $180 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $680.58 · official $680.58 (match) · 3500 history records