Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:38:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DA 0xda91…410d other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 267d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$1
other 14% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 2 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 9 -1.5% -10.9% 67% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage267d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Jun 19 $51 $0 +0%
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 13 $51 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Nov 05 $30 +$1 +3%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Nov 05 $24 −$4 -18%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in September? Oct 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Oct 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Sep 25 $1,009 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $51 1h
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $51 67d
Backpack FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $51 96d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? SELL No 90¢ $31 226d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? SELL No 74¢ $20 226d
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 90¢ $24 230d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 87¢ $30 230d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $10 267d
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $20 267d
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $20 267d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 100¢ $20 267d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $20 267d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? SELL No 100¢ $1,008 267d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $1,009 267d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.30 · official $50.30 (match) · 19 history records