Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:51:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xda94…f072 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$377 (+13%) realized +$377 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate61%17W / 11L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$174
14 days+$53
30 days+$333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$263
other 6% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -47.7% -52.7% 27% 27% -46.5%
≤30d 28 +3.0% -6.8% 61% 57% +1.2%
≤90d 28 +3.0% -6.8% 61% 57% +1.2%
all 28 +3.0% -6.8% 61% 57% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 57% +1.2%
10% -15.7% 54% -8.5%
15% -23.9% 46% -17.3%
20% -31.3% 43% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$45 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$377
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses17 / 11
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage30d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Morocco 42¢ 42¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $40 +$30 +76%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $43 −$42 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 27 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $30 +$44 +147%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $71 +$37 +52%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $243 +$157 +65%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $85 −$85 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $535 +$155 +29%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 +$50 +50%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $40 +$12 +31%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $116 −$116 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $51 +$26 +52%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $13 +$14 +109%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $8 +$6 +83%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 09 $33 +$27 +82%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $41 +$43 +105%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $40 +$9 +21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $18 +$13 +70%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $66 +$62 +94%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Jun 01 $51 +$56 +109%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 0.5 May 31 $924 +$86 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Morocco 42¢ $25 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 87¢ $70 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $40 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $32 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 40¢ $30 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $71 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $243 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 49¢ $50 9d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $50 9d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 55¢ $85 10d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 77¢ $535 10d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $10 11d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $11 11d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $101 15d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 22¢ $12 16d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 76¢ $40 17d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $49 17d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 53¢ $51 17d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 53¢ $16 17d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 30¢ $10 18d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 65¢ $51 18d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 56¢ $17 18d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 BUY Yes 49¢ $10 19d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 47¢ $13 20d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 54¢ $8 20d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 55¢ $28 21d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 55¢ $1 21d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 55¢ $1 21d
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 BUY Yes 55¢ $3 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.70 · official $24.70 (match) · 66 history records