Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:54:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DA
0xda94…bf02
other · 24 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$91
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions21
Markets (closed)3 / 24
History coverage6d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%
Chart Positions 21 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 38¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 64¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 79¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? No 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 20¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 32¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 67¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-51%)
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Under 33¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
United States vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score No 36¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $2 +$2 +83%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 62% −$2
sports 29% −$1
world 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 68¢ $1 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 80¢ $2 9h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $3 9h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 9h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 9h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 9h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 9h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 39¢ $2 9h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 51¢ $3 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 46¢ $5 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 23h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $2 23h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 79¢ $1 23h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 23h
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 81¢ $1 27h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $1 27h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $2 27h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 12¢ $2 33h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 36¢ $2 33h
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 69¢ $5 33h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY No 35¢ $2 33h
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 33h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 30¢ $3 33h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 21¢ $3 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-44.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -39.1% -44.9% 33% 33% -16.8%
≤30d 3 -39.1% -44.9% 33% 33% -16.8%
≤90d 3 -39.1% -44.9% 33% 33% -16.8%
all 3 -39.1% -44.9% 33% 33% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.9% 33% -16.8%
10% -50.2% 33% -24.8%
15% -55.0% 33% -32.0%
20% -59.4% 33% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.74 · official $90.75 (match) · 36 history records