Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:57:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DA
0xda96…ca8a
weather · 95 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$16 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$38
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses18 / 75
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage54d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 2 History 93 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? No 98¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 28? No 98¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 22? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 28°C on April 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C on April 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 27? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 26? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on April 26? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 19°C on April 22? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 26? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 15°C on April 23? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on April 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on April 24? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on April 25? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Romania come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026? No 96¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on April 26? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on April 21? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 21? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 24? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? Yes 90¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on April 28? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Zachariah Wooden advance from the CA-07 primary election? Jun 10 $12 +$1 +11%
Will Apple announce the iPhone 18 during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6? Jun 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 6? Jun 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 4? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? Jun 01 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 31? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on May 30? May 31 $15 $0 -0%
Critical Discord Incident by May 31? May 31 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 29? May 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 29? May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 28? May 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 28? May 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Martella win the 2026 Venice mayoral election? May 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on May 17? May 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 17? May 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 16? May 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on May 16? May 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on May 15? May 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Romania come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 14? May 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 14? May 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Peter Underwood win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral el May 08 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 6? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 6? May 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 6? May 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 6? May 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 5? May 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 5? May 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $9 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 5? May 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on May 5? May 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ma May 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on May 4? May 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 4? May 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 4? May 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C or higher on May 3? May 04 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 89% −$3
culture 3% +$2
politics 3% −$7
other 3% −$9
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 29h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $11 33h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $12 2d
Will Apple announce the iPhone 18 during the WWDC 2026 keynote? SELL No 99¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 98¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $11 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 8? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $10 5d
Will Apple announce the iPhone 18 during the WWDC 2026 keynote? BUY No 98¢ $10 5d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 6? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 6? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 6? BUY No 98¢ $14 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $13 7d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 5? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 5? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 5? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 5? BUY No 98¢ $13 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-31.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.2% -8.4% 22% 11% -8.4%
≤30d 35 -5.1% -14.1% 11% 3% -13.2%
≤90d 93 -24.0% -31.3% 19% 1% -11.2%
all 93 -24.0% -31.3% 19% 1% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.3% 1% -11.2%
10% -37.8% 0% -19.7%
15% -43.9% 0% -27.4%
20% -49.4% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.61 · official $37.61 (match) · 297 history records