Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:53:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda98…836a crypto 208 markets active 6d ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-14%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate49%102W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$33
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$82
sports 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -42.8% -48.2% 33% 17% -52.0%
≤30d 176 -16.6% -24.5% 48% 36% -27.1%
≤90d 208 -15.3% -23.3% 49% 38% -24.6%
all 208 -15.3% -23.3% 49% 38% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 38% -24.6%
10% -30.7% 29% -31.8%
15% -37.4% 23% -38.4%
20% -43.5% 15% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses102 / 106
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)208 / 208
History coverage43d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 208 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 579 history records