Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:42:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DA 0xda9e…3b00 crypto 200 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$95 (-12%) realized −$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%109W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$14
sports 13% −$74
other 11% −$16
finance 1% $0
world 0% −$1
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +8.8% -1.5% 59% 46% -6.5%
≤30d 38 +6.0% -4.1% 58% 45% -7.2%
≤90d 200 -3.3% -12.5% 54% 38% -22.1%
all 200 -3.3% -12.5% 54% 38% -22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 38% -22.1%
10% -20.9% 31% -29.6%
15% -28.5% 28% -36.4%
20% -35.5% 22% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses109 / 91
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)200 / 200
History coverage81d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 200 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +55%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$3 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$2 +170%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$7 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $13 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 08 $17 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 09 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 09 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 09 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 09 $1 +$1 +129%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 68°F or higher on May 11? May 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 09 $13 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 61¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 513 history records