Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:43:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DA 0xda9e…ac09 world 179 markets active 65d ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$81,222 (+11%) realized +$81,222 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate72%128W / 51L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$4,303per market
Trades / day36.8pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$25,076
other 26% +$47,217
economics 10% +$512
politics 8% +$1,008
sports 4% +$1,658
tech 0% +$28
crypto 0% −$113
culture 0% −$741
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 17 +36.7% +23.7% 53% 41% +1.1%
all 179 +8.9% -1.5% 72% 34% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.5% 34% -0.8%
10% -10.9% 27% -10.3%
15% ← realistic here -19.5% 17% -18.9%
20% -27.4% 10% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$3,401) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$701 vs −$308 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.95 per $1 lost it wins $5.95
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$81,222
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses128 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)179 / 179
History coverage75d
Avg bet$4,303
Trades / day36.8
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 179 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 Apr 25 $4,954 +$184 +4%
Will Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) finish second in the 2026 Bulgaria Apr 21 $442 −$442 -100%
Will Velichie (Velichie) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamen Apr 21 $384 −$384 -100%
Will United Left (BSP) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamenta Apr 21 $270 −$270 -100%
Will Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) finish second in the 2026 Apr 21 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Revival (Vazrazhdane) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliam Apr 21 $141 −$141 -100%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? Apr 21 $6,634 +$448 +7%
Will Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) finish second in the 2026 Apr 21 $554 −$461 -83%
Will GERB-UDF (GERB-SDS) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamen Apr 21 $75 +$508 +680%
Will Velichie (Velichie) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian p Apr 21 $1,408 +$1,335 +95%
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgaria Apr 21 $87 +$48 +55%
Will There is Such a People (ITN) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bu Apr 21 $386 +$550 +142%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Apr 16 $569 +$688 +121%
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se Apr 16 $1,689 −$606 -36%
Will Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) win at least one seat in t Apr 07 $419 +$667 +159%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? Apr 04 $438 −$275 -63%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 5% and 15% on March 31? Apr 04 $1,608 +$686 +43%
Will There is Such a People (ITN) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian p Mar 30 $925 −$925 -100%
Will Morality, Unity, Honour (MECh) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian Mar 30 $922 −$922 -100%
Will Velichie (Velichie) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliament Mar 30 $920 −$920 -100%
Will Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS) finish third in the 2026 B Mar 30 $895 −$895 -100%
Will United Left (BSP) finish third in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentar Mar 30 $895 −$895 -100%
Will There is Such a People (ITN) finish second in the 2026 Bulgarian Mar 28 $465 −$465 -100%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 28 $6,981 +$477 +7%
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31? Mar 16 $61 +$6 +9%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31? Mar 16 $94 +$3 +3%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026? Mar 16 $227 −$14 -6%
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026? Mar 16 $1,305 +$30 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 16 $23,433 +$1,249 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 9-15? Mar 16 $153 −$151 -98%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academ Mar 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Will All the Empty Rooms win Best Documentary Short Film at the 98th A Mar 16 $536 −$536 -100%
Will Iran strike Jordan in March? Mar 14 $171 +$79 +46%
Will Iran strike Jordan in March? Mar 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13? Mar 12 $874 +$4,861 +556%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 31? Mar 12 $371 −$6 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16? Mar 12 $3,675 +$7,832 +213%
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31? Mar 12 $150 −$10 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Mar 12 $200 +$60 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Mar 11 $673 −$27 -4%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? Mar 11 $431 +$188 +44%
Trump cabinet member out by March 31, 2026? Mar 11 $12 +$9 +72%
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7? Mar 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Mar 11 $987 +$14 +1%
Nothing Ever Happens: March Mar 10 $84 +$54 +64%
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 10, 2026? Mar 10 $35 +$5 +15%
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 202 Mar 10 $218 −$3 -1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 10 $17,039 +$742 +4%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in March? Mar 10 $232 +$10 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 98¢ $535 65d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 98¢ $13 65d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $30 66d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $1 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $137 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $19 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $192 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $2 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $19 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $192 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $11 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $192 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $11 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $192 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $2 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $19 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $192 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $5 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $192 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $20 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $2 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $19 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $192 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $1 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $21 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $173 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $748 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $3 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $102 68d
Will Andrey Gyurov be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 20 SELL No 100¢ $159 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2867 history records