Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:52:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DA 0xdaa1…e6fd sports 172 markets active 2h ago coverage 372d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$635 (+4%) realized +$636 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%79W / 92L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$268
7 days+$62
14 days+$106
30 days+$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$576
other 10% +$89
world 1% −$110
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -5.5% -14.5% 64% 64% -6.9%
≤30d 24 +12.4% +1.7% 62% 62% -4.4%
≤90d 44 -2.6% -11.8% 52% 52% -5.6%
all 171 +0.0% -9.5% 46% 45% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 45% -5.5%
10% -18.1% 45% -14.6%
15% -26.1% 43% -22.8%
20% -33.3% 36% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$66 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$636
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses79 / 92
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)171 / 172
History coverage372d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $202 +$110 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $202 +$92 +46%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $137 +$66 +48%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$53 +52%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $156 +$48 +30%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $218 +$100 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $192 +$124 +65%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $224 −$224 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $165 +$59 +36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $113 +$52 +46%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $28 +$110 +388%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $101 +$27 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $79 +$24 +30%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $37 −$36 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $32 +$55 +172%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $48 +$34 +71%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $53 +$45 +86%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $51 +$185 +362%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $33 −$32 -99%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $32 −$32 -99%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs May 01 $49 +$26 +52%
Stars vs. Wild Apr 22 $50 −$49 -99%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 22 $50 −$49 -99%
Kings vs. Avalanche Apr 22 $75 +$30 +40%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Apr 22 $25 +$20 +79%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 21 $36 −$35 -99%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 21 $75 +$41 +55%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 21 $25 −$24 -98%
Utah vs. Golden Knights Apr 20 $75 +$53 +70%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 20 $50 +$32 +64%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $80 −$79 -98%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $48 +$32 +67%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 12 $38 −$37 -98%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 12 $28 −$27 -99%
UFC 327: Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Connecticut Huskies (-4.5) Mar 22 $114 −$113 -100%
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-7.5) Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs (-6.5) Mar 22 $96 +$87 +91%
Spread: Arkansas Razorbacks (-4.5) Mar 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-11.5) Mar 21 $100 −$100 -100%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 138.5 Mar 21 $98 +$73 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $81 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 17h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 20h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $101 22h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $137 30h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 37h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 41h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $204 41h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 43h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $156 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $218 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $192 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $192 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $224 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $224 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $165 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $113 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $28 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $101 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Sean OMalley 100¢ $128 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $101 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 100¢ $103 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $20 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $79 9d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 41¢ $37 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $32 10d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 58¢ $48 12d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $53 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.97 · official $78.97 (match) · 283 history records