Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:52:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
DA 0xdaa3…c811 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$459 (+33%) realized +$449 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +287% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +250% what you keep after slip
Net edge+250%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$766now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$75
7 days+$537
14 days+$433
30 days+$433
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$126
sports 20% +$421
crypto 8% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+250.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +330.1% +289.2% 89% 89% +98.7%
≤30d 10 +287.1% +250.3% 80% 80% +57.7%
≤90d 10 +287.1% +250.3% 80% 80% +57.7%
all 10 +287.1% +250.3% 80% 80% +57.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +250.3% 80% +57.7%
10% +216.7% 80% +42.6%
15% +186.1% 80% +28.8%
20% +158.1% 70% +16.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +86% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +287% · $-wt +86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$64 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.36 per $1 lost it wins $4.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$766
Realized+$449
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions11
Markets (closed)10 / 21
History coverage14d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $97 $182 +$85 (+88%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $95 $108 +$13 (+14%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $97 $84 −$13 (-13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 54¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $92 $38 −$54 (-59%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Yes 23¢ 22¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 +$51 +200%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$134 +262%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $46 +$127 +276%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $100 +$44 +43%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $50 +$51 +100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $97 +$59 +61%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $104 −$104 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $26 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 3h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $100 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 19h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $76 39h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 41h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 43h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $185 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $174 3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $46 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 94¢ $98 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 80¢ $101 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $102 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $46 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 48¢ $46 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $50 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $50 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $49 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $100 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $97 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $766.04 · official $766.04 (match) · 46 history records