Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:26:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DA 0xdaa4…71df sports 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%24W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$3
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$140
other 43% −$95
world 4% −$3
crypto 3% −$5
finance 3% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 33% -8.2%
≤30d 46 -5.9% -14.9% 30% 30% -15.0%
≤90d 72 -6.9% -15.8% 29% 29% -6.3%
all 77 -1.7% -11.1% 31% 31% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 31% -5.6%
10% -19.6% 31% -14.6%
15% -27.3% 29% -22.9%
20% -34.5% 23% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$6 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses24 / 53
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions4
Markets (closed)77 / 81
History coverage101d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+38%)
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 15¢ 10¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-30%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 THUNDER dOWNUNDER 12¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner EYEBALLERS 32¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Sinners 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner THUNDER dOWNUNDER 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $5 +$28 +543%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $10 −$6 -55%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 +$15 +196%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$12 -83%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 +$10 +186%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +78%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$7 -68%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 −$1 -10%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -56%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$34 +165%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $10 +$11 +107%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $32 −$14 -43%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -50%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 $0 -6%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +63%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $36 −$16 -44%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $18 +$20 +107%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +39%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 +$14 +115%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -9%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 +$3 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 +$11 +137%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 +$20 +549%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $12 −$12 -97%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? Apr 09 $15 −$4 -25%
Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $5 −$2 -42%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - CCT Europe Series # Apr 09 $10 −$4 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? SELL Yes 99¢ $33 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 3h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 3h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $23 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 33¢ $15 4h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $18 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 16¢ $3 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $2 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 27¢ $7 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 29¢ $9 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.49 · official $20.49 (match) · 189 history records