Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:10:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DA 0xdaa6…3e62 world 265 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$13,951 (+17%) realized +$8,913 · open −$149
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate57%141W / 105L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day32.2pace
Fees−$101est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$2,602now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$354
7 days+$204
14 days+$421
30 days+$413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$8,195
other 8% −$297
sports 5% +$900
tech 1% +$18
finance 0% −$39
politics 0% +$1
crypto 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -13.8% -22.0% 39% 28% -8.6%
≤30d 101 -6.0% -14.9% 46% 30% -8.0%
≤90d 191 +0.7% -8.9% 54% 38% -1.1%
all 246 +20.6% +9.1% 57% 40% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.1% 40% +1.4%
10% ← realistic here -1.3% 32% -8.3%
15% -10.9% 25% -17.2%
20% -19.6% 21% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +46% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$39 · ×2.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.2 per $1 lost it wins $3.2
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$2,602
Realized+$8,913
Unrealized−$149
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses141 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$101
Open positions19
Markets (closed)246 / 265
History coverage104d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day32.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 246 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $1,168 $1,188 +$19 (+2%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $299 $311 +$12 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $291 $289 −$2 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $165 $164 −$2 (-1%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 91¢ $145 $163 +$18 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $131 $131 +$1 (+0%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 34¢ 22¢ $201 $126 −$75 (-37%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $80 $80 −$0 (-0%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $120 $38 −$82 (-68%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Yes 25¢ 16¢ $35 $23 −$12 (-34%)
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? Yes 47¢ 31¢ $34 $22 −$12 (-34%)
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? Yes 39¢ 45¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+14%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 45¢ 32¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 36¢ 23¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-36%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $86 $0 −$86 (-100%)
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Yes 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Knicks 35¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 14 $15 +$13 +89%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $3 +$7 +222%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $1,694 −$59 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -88%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 14 $105 −$70 -66%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $541 +$23 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $13 +$13 +98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $160 +$38 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1,380 +$450 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2,653 +$125 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $1,258 +$59 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $3,257 −$111 -3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $53 +$21 +40%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $403 +$173 +43%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 Jun 14 $82 +$9 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 14 $131 −$13 -10%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $36 −$3 -7%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? Jun 14 $16 −$7 -46%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $53 −$36 -68%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 14 $70 −$41 -59%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 14 $36 −$11 -29%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 14 $213 −$57 -27%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 14 $498 −$22 -4%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 14 $1,074 −$645 -60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $38 +$42 +108%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $155 −$77 -50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +109%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $608 +$18 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $152 −$35 -23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 12 $90 +$28 +31%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $14 +$14 +100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $649 −$40 -6%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $3 +$4 +139%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $413 −$11 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $55 +$10 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $893 +$11 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $14 11m
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $97 13m
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $60 14m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 70¢ $28 15m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $127 17m
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $221 30m
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $37 33m
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 38m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $36 40m
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $6 43m
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 43m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $390 48m
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $201 58m
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $66 58m
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $8 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $133 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $127 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $9 1h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $89 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $180 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 37¢ $15 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 20¢ $2 1h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $6 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $13 1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $22 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,601.61 · official $2,601.40 (match) · 3500 history records