Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DA 0xdaa8…b3e6 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$36 (+22%) realized +$32 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +86% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip
Net edge+62%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$64
crypto 22% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+68.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +86.3% +68.6% 75% 75% +36.0%
≤30d 4 +86.3% +68.6% 75% 75% +36.0%
≤90d 4 +86.3% +68.6% 75% 75% +36.0%
all 4 +86.3% +68.6% 75% 75% +36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +68.6% 75% +36.0%
10% +52.4% 75% +23.0%
15% +37.7% 75% +11.1%
20% +24.2% 75% +0.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +86% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$50 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$32
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $26 +$33 +128%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 +$40 +158%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $25 +$41 +159%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $27 57m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 25¢ $31 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 2h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $25 26h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $36 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.24 · official $39.24 (match) · 10 history records